This particular “analysis” is spectacular in its failure: its attempt to avoid betraying the naivete of its writer is simply breathtaking in its catastrophic wrong-headedness and oversimplification (”Will Medevedev take the reins and leave Putin out in the cold?!” “Will Putin:Medvedev::Cheney:Bush?!?”), and then, in a way similar to that in which drunks often trip over the very thing they’ve been searching for with bleary, sodden eyes, the article ends with a tiny bit of insight (”Wait. Might Medvedev only be a placeholder until Putin is constitutionally allowed to regain power? Let’s save the only prescient quote from a participant in the political process until the last paragraph”).

 It’s transparent to even the most casual observer that Medvedev is barely even qualified to be called a pawn: he is nothing at all more than a different and slightly more youthful face on Putin. Any attempts to even define him apart from Putin fail, and he owes every shred of his success to Vladimir Vladimirovich.

Even if you do attempt to give him his own identity, you end with a younger, softer Putin:  they both hail from Leningrad,  although Medvedev is twelve years younger; they both spend a great deal of time on staying physically fit, but while Putin pursues Judo as one of his favorite physical activities and has achived a sixth-degree black belt in the martial art, Medvedev is an avid practitioner of yoga; the experience of both prior to Presidency was primarily in appointed positions rather than electoral, although Putin was chair of the FSB (one of the KGB’s successor agencies) and Medvedev proceeded almost immediately to Presidential Head of Staff.

Perhaps the most striking thing about Putin and his mouthpiece is this: even a doughy, pretty-boy version of Putin still works out for two hours a day and has a Master’s. Medvedev may be a shadow, but he is very substantial in spite of it.

Just don’t expect to see a streak of independence any time soon. 

I would go so far as to call that an unwise choice on the part of those Serbs. According to the AP, right now the folks in the White House are bristling and expressing no small amount of their own displeasure with Serbia for its inadequate security.

In addition to the “now it’s personal” attitude our current administration is bound to take against Serbia (and not wrongly, either–the one person who died wasn’t a U.S. citizen, but very well could have been), we’ve got to tangle with the fact that Russia and Spain directly oppose Kosovan independence, siding with Serbia on the issue, and keep in mind that while China is not taking a hard stance against us, they are rightly pointing out that “The unilateral move taken by Kosovo will lead to a series of consequences.”

Oh, and to strain our ties with the Russians yet further, their sometimes-pal Turkey is throwing down in Iraq with 10,000 soldiers. That’s a land operation, as opposed to what we’ve been allowing (pinpointed air attacks against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party), so that’s “not the greatest news,” but hey, whatever. At least Turkish citizens aren’t actually directly fire-bombing U.S. embassies.

C’est la vie. It’s true that our military is unbelievably vulnerable thanks to getting bogged down in Iraq, but it’s not like a World War has ever broken out over the events in some retarded Balkan country or anything.

Fidel’s given up the poorly-upkept facade of being Cuba’s leader, and he’s handed the reigns of power to his brother Raul (for realsies, this time).

Despite constant reassurances from his various lackeys that Fidel would soon to be able to leap tall buildings again, he’s finally acquiesced to the fact that his health problems will keep him from being an effective leader (and who knows where he got such a notion? Perhaps the fact that it’s kept him from being effective for nearly two years).

President Bush reacted extremely quickly to the news and threw together a press conference in Rwanda this morning. He called for a transition into a democratic government: “Eventually this transition ought to lead to free and fair elections, and I mean free and I mean fair, not these kind of staged elections that the Castro brothers try to foist off as being true democracy.”

Delightful words to hear, to be sure, but even though Raul is the fuzzy, warm-hearted little brother, I doubt he’ll be quickly ready to play ball. Sure, he’s raised a lot of hopes in Cuba after hinting that the economy could do with some help and suggesting that the government wages aren’t high enough at $19 a day, but our President is still asking for absolute power to avoid corrupting absolutely. Bush may as well ask the sun to stay up for an extra few hours today so he can finish his coloring book before bedtime.

What’s the Russian take on the subject? They’re a bit busy with the Kosovo/Serbia situation, but the Putin USA 2008 campaign had a few things to say: in case Bush’s dreams come true and there is a democratic election, “Cuban people may find it wise to write me in as candidate. I will solve Cuban problems too.”

Thanks, Vlad.