Jonny Dover
Castro’s resignation and what it means for us
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Still waiting on a cigar? Don’t get your hopes up.
Fidel’s given up the poorly-upkept facade of being Cuba’s leader, and he’s handed the reigns of power to his brother Raul (for realsies, this time).
Despite constant reassurances from his various lackeys that Fidel would soon to be able to leap tall buildings again, he’s finally acquiesced to the fact that his health problems will keep him from being an effective leader (and who knows where he got such a notion? Perhaps the fact that it’s kept him from being effective for nearly two years).
President Bush reacted extremely quickly to the news and threw together a press conference in Rwanda this morning. He called for a transition into a democratic government: “Eventually this transition ought to lead to free and fair elections, and I mean free and I mean fair, not these kind of staged elections that the Castro brothers try to foist off as being true democracy.”
Delightful words to hear, to be sure, but even though Raul is the fuzzy, warm-hearted little brother, I doubt he’ll be quickly ready to play ball. Sure, he’s raised a lot of hopes in Cuba after hinting that the economy could do with some help and suggesting that the government wages aren’t high enough at $19 a day, but our President is still asking for absolute power to avoid corrupting absolutely. Bush may as well ask the sun to stay up for an extra few hours today so he can finish his coloring book before bedtime.
What’s the Russian take on the subject? They’re a bit busy with the Kosovo/Serbia situation, but the Putin USA 2008 campaign had a few things to say: in case Bush’s dreams come true and there is a democratic election, “Cuban people may find it wise to write me in as candidate. I will solve Cuban problems too.”
Thanks, Vlad.
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Man, I really hope his little brother looks exactly like him, only 3/4 the size and always wearing sear-sucker suits.
It is feasible that Fidel, as the figurehead of “the revolution”, was one of the primary factors in Cuba not getting too far past the revolutionary, oppositional stage. With him gone, I think it does enhance the hopes, for those who so hope, that we will see better ties with Cuba. Right?
I’ve got more hope for Pakistan to make the radical pro-happy-USA turnaround than I do for Cuba.
Of course, Raul’s up there in years too, so we might see some time in our lifetimes a non-Castro come to the lead, and I think that only then will we see any kind of dramatic change.
I’m speaking more to a gradual opening of trade than pro-happy rahrah feelings. As to dramatic change..well…I hear there’s alot of pissed off expats in Florida…since that worked so great last time…
I don’t know much about ol’ Raul (other than that he’s not much younger than Fidel), but even a transition of power to other old-guard Party members could signal the beginning of serious change. It happened in the USSR; Gorbachev wasn’t brought to power because the Party was looking for someone to bring down the Soviet Union. And for that matter, setting in motion that sort of reform doesn’t require some great sense of altruism or political martyrdom as much as it requires a simple ability to see the writing on the wall. Even if Raul and whoever else is really controlling the country are cold pragmatists, they can still secretly understand the necessity of slowly establishing reforms. It’s not unthinkable.
But then again, Venezuela has cut Cuba a pretty sweet deal, however much Chavez’s personal stock has fallen throughout most of Latin America, and Cuba’s new leader(s) might be perfectly content to keep their fortunes tied to Caracas.
And, the future of US-Cuban relations and of Cuba’s willingness to make reforms is dependent on whoever wins the US election this fall.
Not to toot my own horn, but this comes less than a week after the Valentine’s Day bluegrass show played by Rachel Ammons’ band “The Crumbs” at a bar in Ft. Smith, at which event we were all asked to make homemade valentines out of brown paper sacks to be filled with candy; I presciently made MY Valentine’s Day candy-bag a well-wishing from Fidel. Just ask Russel Moore.